AI-powered NFL predictions, betting analysis and value picks.
Los Angeles Rams
1.64
Estimated value
+4.6%
Market average
1.57
Fair probability
63.8%
Bookmakers tracked
27
Los Angeles Rams have a 63.9% consensus, outpacing the Raiders in market perception.
New York Jets
1.51
Estimated value
+3.6%
Market average
1.46
Fair probability
68.6%
Bookmakers tracked
27
New York Jets possess a 68.7% consensus, indicating they are the market's top pick against the Dolphins.
Pittsburgh Steelers
1.67
Estimated value
+4.5%
Market average
1.60
Fair probability
62.6%
Bookmakers tracked
26
Pittsburgh Steelers have a 62.5% consensus, outpacing the Saints in market expectation.
San Francisco 49ers
1.73
Estimated value
+3.1%
Market average
1.68
Fair probability
59.6%
Bookmakers tracked
27
San Francisco 49ers hold a 59.7% consensus, making them the market favorite over the Falcons.
Cincinnati Bengals
1.71
Estimated value
+3.8%
Market average
1.65
Fair probability
60.7%
Bookmakers tracked
27
Cincinnati Bengals enjoy a 60.5% consensus, indicating higher market confidence than the Ravens.
Denver Broncos
1.47
Estimated value
+2.8%
Market average
1.43
Fair probability
69.9%
Bookmakers tracked
27
Denver Broncos hold a 69.8% consensus, indicating strong market backing over the Cardinals.
Dallas Cowboys
1.48
Estimated value
+2.9%
Market average
1.44
Fair probability
69.5%
Bookmakers tracked
27
Dallas Cowboys lead with a 69.5% consensus, suggesting they are the favored side against the Eagles.
Detroit Lions
1.56
Estimated value
+2.7%
Market average
1.52
Fair probability
65.8%
Bookmakers tracked
27
Detroit Lions dominate with a 65.9% consensus, clearly favored over the Packers.
Cleveland Browns
1.83
Estimated value
+4.5%
Market average
1.75
Fair probability
57.1%
Bookmakers tracked
27
Cleveland Browns lead with a 57.0% consensus, slightly ahead of the Titans.
Seattle Seahawks
1.71
Estimated value
+2.5%
Market average
1.67
Fair probability
59.9%
Bookmakers tracked
27
Seattle Seahawks have a 60.0% consensus, surpassing the Chiefs in market weighting.
Carolina Panthers
1.69
Estimated value
+2.5%
Market average
1.65
Fair probability
60.7%
Bookmakers tracked
27
Carolina Panthers hold a 60.6% consensus, indicating stronger market support than the Buccaneers.
Understanding key scoring numbers (3, 7, 10), field goal margins, and line movement in American football.
American Football is one of the most heavily analyzed sports betting markets in the world. Due to the structured nature of scoring (touchdowns = 6 points + 1 extra point, field goals = 3 points), NFL margin of victory distributions cluster around specific 'key numbers', making point spread evaluation uniquely quantitative.
Historically, approximately 15% of all NFL games finish with a margin of victory of exactly 3 points, and roughly 9% finish with a margin of exactly 7 points. Secondary key numbers include 6, 10, 14, and 4. Moving a point spread across the key number 3 (e.g., from -2.5 to -3.5) represents a substantial change in true probability that is far larger than moving from -8.5 to -9.5.
The primary market in NFL betting. The favorite is assigned a negative handicap (e.g., -3.5) and must win by 4+ points; the underdog can lose by up to 3 or win outright.
Straight-up winner market. If the game goes to overtime, the final result (including overtime) decides the wager. In regular season ties, moneyline wagers are settled as pushes.
Total points scored by both offenses, defenses, and special teams throughout regulation and any overtime periods played.
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